Nobody runs out of things to bet on. They run out of ways to say what happened in time. A market whose outcome takes longer to establish than the market itself lasts does not trade badly, it cannot exist. Below are twenty-seven of them. Drag resolution latency from a two-day committee down to ten seconds and watch the catalogue fill in.
Fermah states the design rule in a single line, and it is more severe than it first reads. If establishing what happened takes longer than the market is open, the market never settles while anyone still holds a position. That is not a liquidity problem or a demand problem. It is a market that cannot be listed.
Targets as published by Fermah, Aug 2026.
The same twenty-seven market types, evaluated at each resolution regime. Nothing about the traders changes between rows. Only how fast someone can say what happened.
Everything below needs an answer faster than two days. With a human in the resolution loop, none of it can be listed. These are not exotic edge cases. They are the markets people already argue about in real time: the next goal, the gas spike, the view count, the rain.
Every cell on this page is evaluated in your browser by the same file that ships in the repository. Add a market, change a lifetime, and the curve redraws itself.
Lifetimes and resolution requirements are representative, chosen to describe each market type rather than measured from any venue: a tennis set, a block, a rush hour, an election. The argument is the shape of the curve, not any single cell. The production figures quoted from Fermah (100,000+ markets, 1M+ markets resolved) are their stated numbers, not independently verified here.
This dispatch is an independent model built by this desk. It is not published by Fermah. Their thesis is theirs; the catalogue, the numbers and any errors in them are mine.